Philosophy & Process
Philosophy is the foundation, process builds the returns, structure tilts the probability of repeated success in our favor
Quality
Economic Profits Drive Returns
Companies create shareholder value by generating robust economic returns and protecting their competitive advantages by strategic reinvestment:
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Competitive advantages or economic moats allow companies to create value by compounding the spread between returns and cost of capital.
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Capital allocation by company management (funding internal growth, dividends, buybacks or acquisitions) is critical to compounding shareholder value.
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A focus on long-term economic profits in board and management is rare but builds more shareholder value than short-term earnings management.
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A business owner mindset allows a long-term perspective that reduces behavioral finance mistakes:
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A long-term view lets us to separate signal from noise – focus on the long-term economic profits rather than extrapolating short-term results.
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Time arbitrage is buying assets with long-term value (probabilistically enhanced by competitive advantages of companies) in a contrarian view to an underappreciating market.
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Stocks of high-quality companies (defined by leverage, profit margin, earnings volatility or beta) outperform low-quality stocks over the long-term.3
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Long Term Business Owner Mindset
Style
Investment decisions are probabilistic. The investment process has been designed to tilt the odds of success in the clients' favor:
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Concentrated portfolios outperform
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Low portfolio turnover contributes to outperformance
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Equally weighted portfolios benefit from quality and value factors
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Consistent Process Improves the Probability of Success
Structure
Risk management is fundamental to and integrated in our process:
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Looking for a margin of safety in investments is built-in risk management by rendering an accurate estimate of the future unnecessary
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Mean reversion or cyclicality in revenue, margins and valuations creates opportunities to create higher investment returns and better protect capital
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Minimizing losses is more important than maximizing gains; a disciplined process and checklist driven decisions minimize mistakes
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Consistent Process Improves the Probability of Success
Risk Management
Disciplined Investment Process
Focus on what drives long-term business return
FOCUS
The best money managers maintain a disciplined focus on the investment process (not outcome). If the investment process is good, the favorable performance will follow.
RESEARCH
Investment research should focus on the handful of business attributes that are most likely to drive shareholder value over time, and not simply collect data. An investment checklist improves focus on what is knowable and important.
PEER REVIEW
Peer review improves decision-making by acting as a check and balance on our individual biases.
CONCENTRATION
Active investing adds value across all funds (even underperforming ones) when only the best ideas are used as subset portfolios. Active share and long-term holding (low turnover) combined adds alpha.
Value Investing
Value investing prioritizes margins of safety to reduce downside risk and protect invested capital:
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Looking for a margin of safety in investments is built-in risk management by rendering an accurate estimate of the future unnecessary. Margin of safety reduces downside risk and preserves the investor’s original capital.
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Mean reversion or cyclicality in revenue, margins and valuations creates opportunities to create higher investment returns and better protect capital.
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Value investing is successful risk management. Portfolios must be built to withstand an uncertain future
MARGIN OF SAFETY
Initial Qualification
GOAL: Create a manageable opportunity set to prioritize and analyze
Historical Analysis
GOAL: Determine initial business quality and investment opportunity; rank candidates
Fundamental Analysis
GOAL: Research industry stability and competitiveness
Portfolio Construction
GOAL: Improve the overall quality and/or valuation of the portfolio; maintain low portfolio turnover
Risk Management
GOAL: Reduce the risk of permanent loss of capital; generate superior risk adjusted returns
"I try to invest in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will."
- Warren Buffett